Indicators of Big Change Coming
Pay attention to the stories and your vibes.
Me with John Harri and empty tables at the Creation Care and Justice plant sale on May 4, 2025 at Plymouth Church in Des Moines.
We’ve just lived through one of the most significant 100 days in our nation’s history. The data hasn’t caught up to what we are living. It will. In fact we had a preview of what’s to come with a data point last week as the economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter.
History will unpack what Republicans have done to not only our country but to the entire world. Most of that history will be written later. When the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares that the US is in recession, we will have already been in one for several months.
Ahead of the NBER and the history books are our lived experiences. Today I’m going to share a sampling of mine since March 28.
On Sunday, our farm donated plants to Plymouth Church’s Creation Care and Justice team for an annual plant sale. We’ve been doing this for close to a decade. We used to drop plants on Saturday after finishing at the farmers market. Our last year at the Des Moines Downtown Farmers Market was 2019. Since then, I’ve driven in on Sunday morning with a car full of 168 plants. That’s how many fit in the car.
One rule for doing a farmers market or any kind of sale is that you want to have more than you can sell. Once that table starts to look empty, the sales slow way down. So we always bring more plants to the church than we think we can sell.
Last year was a great year. We took home about 20 plants after selling in two waves. The first wave was after the 9:00 service. The second wave was after the 11:00 service. There are about two 45 minute blocks before I’d load up the car and head home.
Much of this Sunday was very consistent with previous years. Same number of plants. Similar promotion. Same location as last year and also on Confirmation Sunday. One difference was that we were a little earlier than last year by about two weeks.
But what was wildly different is that we sold out of all the plants in 20 minutes. The first service got out at about 10:00 and by 10:20, we had two Hungarian hot wax peppers left on the table. They were both gone by 10:30.
I usually talk to lots of people explaining the different varieties. I ask questions like, “are you going to grow it in the ground or in a pot?” That makes a difference. Beefsteaks do not do well in a pot. Cherry tomatoes do great. But I only spoke to a couple of people. There was no talking. No cautious buyers. It was just grab and go. People were motivated to buy their plants like I’ve never seen.
I observed something very different this year. That is a fact. What does it mean? I’ll have to speculate a little bit. But I’ve been here before. When the economy tanked in 2008, we assumed that our higher value and higher priced products from our farm were going to be a hard sell. It was just the opposite. Demand for our farm fresh produce never dipped and we even saw an upswing in new customers.
We saw the same thing in 2020 with COVID. They cancelled farmers markets, but farmers improvised and the customers kept coming. Many farmers we knew doing local foods had a record year in 2020.
Right now, I think people are preparing to nest. They plan to stay closer to home. They plan to do activities with their kids. They are looking for a connection. I imagine a few might be anticipating higher prices and are hedging their bets. But gardening doesn’t save you money unless you value your time at zero.
Gardening and connecting with a local farmer does ground a person differently than simply shopping at the grocery store. People are shifting. We saw it at the plant sale at Plymouth Church on Sunday.
One of the volunteers from the Creation Care and Justice team mentioned that he and his wife had planned to go to Maine this summer. They aren’t going to go. They’ve decided to stay closer to home.
On March 28, I was talking with a friend from high school. She has a college student. Her adult child did over 25 interviews trying to get a paid summer internship before their senior year. They finally got one. It wasn’t what they were looking for, but they took the first offer they got. More than one of the businesses doing the interviews said they weren’t hiring any paid interns for the summer.
Same friend had a December college graduate start at her work. She asked him if it was hard getting a job. He said it was very hard. He didn’t know why he got the job offer. He was glad to get it. He said none of his classmates who graduated in December had gotten jobs.
One of my farming friends is also a building inspector in a Des Moines suburb. When we’re talking about our farms, I always ask how his day job is going. It’s been hard for him the past few years because they’ve been building houses and businesses like crazy. He’s been busy at work and that makes it challenging to get his farm work done.
At the end of April he said he was going to have more time to farm this spring because both commercial and residential building permits have nearly stopped. New projects are just not happening.
On a personal note, Substack provides an unbelievable amount of feedback. I can see in real time new subscribers, number of views reading my columns, and notices about paid subscriptions.
A friend who also writes on Substack mentioned to me that since the tariffs, they’ve seen a spike in paid subscribers going back to free. So I took a look at my paid subscription numbers.
I will always provide my content to all of my subscribers whether they are paid or not. Paid subscriptions are deeply appreciated. They have made it possible for me to be more selective in looking for a full time job and have helped cover some of the expenses of traveling around the state to talk with groups.
It’s also helpful to be able to go someplace to check something out that I might want to write about. For example, I’m headed to Algona on Monday to meet with the Kossuth County Democrats. I’m also going to meet with some community leaders to understand how Trump’s immigration policies are threatening that community where immigrants are critical to Algona’s vitality.
Let me unpack the data from my Substack newsletter. My first post was on January 21, 2025. In the first couple of weeks, there were a lot of friends and family becoming paid subscribers. About February 6, paid subscriptions leveled out and the graph was a very straight line. Starting on March 29, I went 16 days without any new paid subscribers. During the time from March 29 until May 6, average daily paid subscriptions have been down 75% compared to February 6 through March 28.
I’m not complaining or begging for more paid subscribers. I’m just sharing real time data. And here’s my explanation of what is likely happening. When you look at the S and P 500 and President Trump’s tariff announcements, there is a perfect overlap with the dramatic change in new paid subscribers to my newsletter. People are pulling back.
Thankfully, people are still reading my columns, but fewer people are opting to pay. This makes perfectly good sense. If people are starting to worry about their own financial situation and the economics of their state, nation, and world, then they are likely going to rein in spending.
The data from my Substack supports the vibe that Americans are getting worried, spending is decreasing, the US economy and the global economy are going to shrink.
I read this from Agri-Pulse on Monday, Tariffs are slashing inbound ships, alarming ag exporters. You’ll need a subscription to Agri-Pulse to read the entire article, but click on the link and read the first paragraph. That helps the team at Agri-Pulse know that stories like this are getting attention.
The main point is that as importers are ordering fewer products, fewer ships are coming into West Coast ports. That means fewer empty ships are available to ship out our exports. So even if you can find a buyer, you might not be able to find space on a ship to export your product. The agriculture industry is starting to get increasingly worried about additional shoes like this dropping for our high volume exports in this trade war.
We won’t have actual numbers and reports for weeks or even months. But I know what I’m seeing and hearing. You do too. Trust these stories. Trust your vibe. Republicans have wrecked our economy.
Remember when the economy tanked in 2008? There was a big push by the federal government to get it started again. Remember the 2020 pandemic? Again, major federal government investments to keep the economy from tanking. And while there was a lot of pain and many people experienced significant harm, the big investments kept the economy from going into a depression and the rebound was strong and vigorous.
Coming out of the 2008 recession, we didn’t spend enough. The recovery was consistent but slow. Coming out of the pandemic, we made much bigger investments in infrastructure, technology, the federal workforce, fighting poverty, expanding health care, and fighting climate change.
On January 20, 2025, the United States of America had one of the strongest economies in our history. I’m not arguing it was perfect. But I am arguing that we were on solid ground and leading the world in a global recovery.
What’s different this time is that the slow down in the economy, the worrisome vibes, the pull back, the changed plans, the belt tightening is because of the actions of the federal government. In other words, the recession is being caused by the President, his team, and the Republicans in congress.
How well do you think the efforts are going to be to right this ship with smart federal investments?
Republicans continue to defend billions of dollars in cuts as well as cutting the public servants who provide the benefits. For example, USDA is reporting a decrease of 15% of its labor force. Per usual, Chris Clayton at DTN has the story: USDA Staffing and Budget Cuts, More Than 15,000 Employees Leaving USDA as White House Proposes More Budget Cuts.
I’m not optimistic that this is going to turn out very well. Trump and Republicans won’t even spend on disaster recovery. NPR has a story from May 1 about these cuts to communities hit by natural disasters. How fast do you think Republicans will start investing to provide a lifeline to American families and businesses?
In case you’ve missed it, Republicans in congress are spending all of their time and energy trying to get a Budget Reconciliation package rammed through the House and Senate to provide tax cuts to billionaires while cutting things like SNAP and Medicaid.
As you start to gather stories and inventory your own vibes, also remember that there is hope in the resistance. People aren’t just laying down and taking this. Keep making the phone calls. Show up for protests. Attend meetings. Start to engage with candidates as they announce their plans. All of this is making a difference.
Robert Leonard has a call to action today, This Is What Democracy Looks Like. He also pointed me to this great story about protests in rural America from Daily Yonder, Not Just a Blue Dot in a Sea of Red: April 5th Protests Across Rural America.
On April 5, I heard about protests in over 10 communities under 12,000 people in Iowa. There are local leaders holding regular protests over the noon hour in rural communities and they are getting upwards of 50 people showing up. As someone who has gotten their mail at a rural Iowa address for more than 45 years, I can tell you this is unheard of.
My mom joined 50 other people in Greenfield on May Day. I was at the Iowa Capitol that day with about 300 people including Robert Leonard. That makes a difference. But as I shared and commented on Facebook, 50 people on the streets in Greenfield, really, really makes a difference. The story in Daily Yonder is simply the tip of the iceberg.
Our stories and vibes aren’t only about the economy. Read the signs at these protests. Americans, including rural Iowans, are connecting the dots, because none of this, including tanking the economy, is merely collateral damage or unintended consequences.
Team Trump is doing all of this at a speed meant to create so much chaos that institutions crumble under the weight of their blows. They are counting on breaking the economy, the courts, the rule of law, due process, and democracy itself all at once. That’s their play. Republicans are going along with it.
What they haven’t counted on is that we too are responding. Even in Greenfield. Even in Spencer. And Vinton. And Carroll. And all across Iowa and the nation.
We are connecting an intentional attack on our economic well-being with the deportation of a an American child with stage 4 cancer. We’re standing up for federal employees who have been demoted, fired, and bullied for fulfilling their oath to the constitution.
We’re outraged that Trump, his appointees, and his Republican enablers in congress are using the levers of power in our democracy to amass greater power and wealth for themselves.
Listen to the stories. Trust your gut. Join with others. You are making a difference. And when the data starts to get reported and the shit starts hitting the fan with the economy, it’s going to take all of us working together to get the car out of the ditch that Republicans have driven it into.
And just like Republicans are doing everything all at once for the greatest effect, we too will connect the dots and rebuild our great nation in a comprehensive way. Just read the signs that are getting honks and thumbs-up in places like Red Oak, Iowa. And pay attention to all the folks planting gardens this spring. We are training ourselves to grow a movement.
I’ve recently been invited to join the Iowa Writers Collaborative. Please take a look at this amazing group of Iowans publishing their work on Substack who are keeping community-based local journalism and commentary alive. It’s an honor to be among this group.
I, too, live in rural America X 30 + years. A very red Oregon county. I see some trump signs no longer up, and protests well attended. Your posts hit home runs with me, and I'm very grateful. Carry on!
Nice aggregation of excellent reporting going on about this Matt. I especially appreciate when you delineate fact from supposition - something we desperately need online these days. This year, because I DO value my time and other farmers' expertise, I'm buying most of our veggies from Sundog Farm. I hope others will support local farmers who are now struggling with the sudden withdrawal of $11 million in local food funds from Iowa.